Jan 2, 2009
Happy New Year! We have much to talk about this year as we push forward. By all accounts, the economy, the dollar, the foreclosures, the job situation etc are all getting worse by the minute. Even if Obama is a magician it will be 2 years before there is a glimmer of hope. The homeowner aid programs are window dressing. Even the Sheila Bair one from FDIC/Indy Mac while well-intentioned does little for most homeowners. The ONLY hope for homeowners and the only hope for our economy is if we face the music and take the free market enthusiasts at their word, to wit: everyone agrees they artificially inflated real estate values and those values are still too high for the market to support. The only reason the “values” are stated so high is that the sellers are still deluding themselves in their asking prices. There is at least another 20% to go. As Brad Keiser says, we are only in about the 2nd or 3rd inning of a 9 inning game that might go into overtime.
Refi’s that leave homeowners under water simply will not work. People are not that stupid. It is easier to walk from the house and rent or buy another at real (lower) values.
Thus the Garfield Continuum plan is the only viable option — get rid of the note, obligation and mortgage altogether or at least force a modification that will bring the obligation to around 80% of true fair market value. Only a credible threat to the financial services sector pushing foreclosures will result in this relief. The threat comes from understanding and enforcing the basic law applicable to these mortgages — they screwed up and now they want borrowers to sign new paper that clears up their screw up and leaves the borrower in a horrible position.
The loss belongs where it was created — on Wall Street and Main Street Banks that rented their charter to Wall Street operatives who caused an unprecedented collapse of loan underwriting standards and crossing the line into fraud, forgery, and creation of false documentation. Companies SHOULD fail. Banks SHOULD fail. Borrowers CANNOT fail — because they are the backbone of the country and the economy. There are plenty of lenders, investment bankers and money managers who did not play the game and are perfectly healthy. Bailout money should go to the players who played by the rules and are healthy. They are the ONLY ones who can and will lend, thus freeing up, somewhat, the tightening death grip of no credit and thus no commerce.
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